Global-trade remains uncertain?

On April 8, local time, the World Trade Organization released the latest annual trade statistics and outlook report, which said that due to trade tensions and slowing economic growth, global merchandise trade fell by 0.1% in 2019. Global merchandise trade is expected to decline by 13% to 32% in 2020. Global trade recovery in 2021 is still possible, but there are also uncertainties, and its final performance will largely depend on the duration of the epidemic and the effectiveness of the national anti-epidemic policies.
The report pointed out that prior to the outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, global trade in 2019 has been slowing down. Under the continued pressure of continued trade tensions, global commodity trade has stalled and declined near the end of the year. In 2020, global trade was hit again by the epidemic.
Compared with the situation during the 2008-2009 international financial crisis, the global trade decline caused by the epidemic has both similarities and great differences. The similarities are that governments can intervene again through monetary and fiscal policies to cope with the economic downturn and provide temporary income support for businesses and households; the difference is that countries have adopted various restrictive measures to slow the spread of the virus, and closed many The economic sector has greatly affected important parts of the national economy such as steel, emt conduit, hotels, restaurants, non-essential retail trade, tourism and manufacturing, resulting in a shortage of labor supply, as well as limited transportation and travel, and global value chains and trade in services have also suffered Big shock.
The report said that there are two very different conclusions about the macro predictions of future global trade performance. The relatively optimistic forecast is that after a sharp decline in trade, recovery will begin in the second half of 2020; the relatively pessimistic forecast is that after the initial decline, the decline in global trade will continue for a longer period until a partial recovery. On the one hand, if companies and consumers believe that the epidemic is only a temporary, one-time shock, the possibility of a strong rebound is greater. In this case, once the crisis subsides, consumer spending may recover or approach the level before the epidemic. On the other hand, if the epidemic persists for a long time and uncertainty becomes common, household and business consumption expenditures may become more cautious.
The report predicts that imports and exports in all regions of the world will decline to varying degrees in 2020, and there are many uncertainties. The impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on global value chains and service trade will remain a prominent issue facing global trade in the future. Industries characterized by complex value chain connections, especially electronics and automotive products, may experience a greater decline in trade. Affected by transportation and travel restrictions and the closure of the retail industry, service trade has suffered the most direct impact, and since most commodity trade cannot be separated from services (such as transportation), damage to service trade will also indirectly affect commodity trade. However, some service industries may benefit from the crisis, such as information technology services. As work from home and remote socialization became more common during the outbreak, the global demand for information technology services grew rapidly. Most trade data show that the impact of the epidemic on international trade is not yet obvious, but some real-time indicators have shown signs of a further slowdown in the global economy, such as the Global Purchasing Managers Index and the Manufacturing Export Order Index all falling below the benchmark , Indicating a severe downturn in the global economy.